(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold prices were near steady and spot silver prices were modestly higher in early U.S. trading Friday, as a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields on the week continued to support precious metals following Thursday's rebound. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh refrained from signaling an October rate increase during overnight remarks at the International Monetary Fund meetings, reducing immediate tightening expectations despite persistent inflation pressure. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,172.10 an ounce, up $2.30, or 0.06%, while spot silver was trading near $57.630, up $0.330, or 0.57%.Market positioning remains divided between stubborn inflation and growing concerns about economic resilience. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% annually, while Thursday's producer-price report showed a 1.3% monthly increase and a 6.3% annual gain, the largest monthly rise since March 2022. Producer energy prices jumped 10.8%, adding to concerns that elevated crude and fuel costs could prolong inflation. September retail sales increased 0.8%, suggesting consumer demand remains resilient, while initial jobless claims rose slightly to 199,000.The inflation data have kept December Federal Reserve tightening expectations elevated, but near-term rate pricing has shifted considerably. Following Warsh's remarks in Bangkok, traders reduced the probability of an October rate hike to roughly 15%, while the probability of a December increase remained near 89%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading near 5.11%, down approximately 14 basis points on the week, as concerns about debt-financed artificial intelligence investment helped fuel demand for government bonds. The dollar index retreated toward 101.9, easing another source of pressure on bullion. Friday's September import and export prices, industrial production report and the approach of the Fed's pre-meeting communications blackout are the next immediate considerations. Softer economic data would reinforce the October-pause trade and support gold, while persistent inflation keeps the prospect of additional tightening and renewed yield pressure in place ahead of the Oct. 27-28 policy meeting.The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a major source of geopolitical and energy-market uncertainty despite another modest decline in crude prices Friday. Attacks on commercial vessels near the strait have intensified in October, with two cargo ships sinking after separate incidents and other vessels reporting projectile strikes. The absence of a durable U.S.-Iran agreement continues to threaten the stability of Middle Eastern exports, even as some regional crude flows have recovered. The International Energy Agency's decision to accelerate the release of approximately 100 million barrels of remaining emergency oil stocks is helping offset immediate supply concerns. However, U.S. crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels last week, while hurricane-related production disruptions and lower distillate stocks have added to physical-market tightness. Brent crude traded near $105.26 a barrel and WTI near $97.11. For gold, the transmission remains mixed: geopolitical insecurity supports safe-haven demand, but elevated oil prices sustain inflation expectations and the risk of higher interest rates. Silver remains more vulnerable to shifts in industrial sentiment, although the weaker dollar is supporting its recovery.Global equity markets were mixed before the U.S. open as investors assessed Warsh's comments and the outlook for AI-related investment. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, Dow futures gained 0.4% and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.1%. Asian equities recovered part of Thursday's sharp losses, with South Korea's Kospi rising 2.1% and Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.4%. European markets were mixed, with Germany's DAX up about 1.0%, France's CAC 40 modestly higher and the U.K. FTSE 100 slightly lower. The stabilization in equities has reduced some immediate defensive demand, but concerns about the financing of large-scale AI infrastructure remain supportive of Treasury bonds.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $97.11 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $105.26. The U.S. dollar index is softer and trading near 101.9. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.11% area. The U.S. dollar index is softer and trading near 101.9. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,201.00 to $4,217.40 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,230.51 and then $4,272.41. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,141.97, with deeper downside targets at $4,073.55 and then $4,066.54. First resistance is seen at $4,185.25 and then at $4,201.00. First support is seen at $4,148.26 and then at $4,141.97.Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $57.856 to $58.276 area, with a move above that zone targeting $59.370 and then $60.450. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $56.920, with deeper downside targets at $56.777 and then $56.340. First resistance is seen at $57.856 and then at $58.276. Next support is seen at $57.390 and then at $56.920.See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

(Kitco News) – BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, sees the recent spate of share buybacks by gold miners as reckless and undisciplined, and believes that with gold prices likely to rise higher, the miners and their shareholders would be far better served by investing in new production.Evy Hambro, global head of thematic and sector investing at BlackRock, said at the FT Mining Summit this week that the share buyback programmes amount to “reckless capital allocation,” and that gold companies were approving these repurchases “without any real process.”“One of the things we’ve been really dismayed about in the last 18 months or so has been the reckless capital allocation towards share buybacks in gold companies, where we’ve seen enormous amounts of money deployed on buybacks without any real process,” he said. Hambro contrasted these buyback programmes with the real work of allocating capital to developing new mines to increase future supply. “If you look at what companies do when they’re making $1bn investment decisions on building new mines, they do far more work on that than they do on $1bn decisions to buy back their own shares,” he said.Hambro is speaking as an industry and sector expert, but he’s also speaking on behalf of BlackRock as a major stakeholder. Four gold mining giants have announced share buyback programmes worth approximately $12 billion – Barrick Mining, Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields. BlackRock owns 12% of Newmont, 10% of AngloGold Ashanti, and 6% of Gold Fields.Hambro criticized the lack of transparency surrounding the programmes, which he said would be necessary to build investor trust.“We’re very dismayed when companies announce big share buyback plans when share prices are at their peak, and then when the gold price falls back to $4,000 an ounce they stop buying back shares – and the shares are 40% cheaper,” he said. “Where was the maths in making those decisions in the first place?” Hambro said rather than locking themselves into expensive defined programmes, the companies should instead leave themselves the flexibility to take advantage of the opportunities in the market when they occur.BlackRock remains bullish on the trajectory of gold prices, however, due the massive debts and deficits being carried by global governments. “When you look around the world today, you see the incredible amount of debt governments are carrying and the large ongoing deficits many countries are running,” Hambro said. “You see no plan from governments to fix the problems, beyond doing more and more of the same. To me, that means you’re going to see an ongoing depreciation in the purchasing power of paper currencies.“The outcome is that real assets rise in price,” he said, “and gold is probably one of the biggest beneficiaries of that.”Hambro said BlackRock sees the long-term trend for gold remaining higher, even as they expect further gold price volatility in the near term resulting from shifting monetary policy expectations and interest rates.“That’s creating shorter-term volatility,” he said. “But the trend is very much your friend.”Back in March, as gold prices were beginning their months-long slide following the start of the Iran war, Kristy Akullian, BlackRock’ head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas, said the company believed the bull market was far from over.Akullian pointed to three main catalysts that had driven the outsized gains for gold and silver.First, mounting government debt has made the precious metals attractive as stores of value.“Government debt levels have risen to concerning levels globally,” she wrote. “In the U.S., federal debt now exceeds 120% of GDP, while annual fiscal deficits continue to run near 6–7% of GDP. And it’s not alone: global debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for major developed economies like Japan, the U.K., France and Canada as well.”Akullian pointed out that gold has historically benefited in these environments. “Silver has often behaved as a higher-beta extension of this theme, though its pricing reflects a combination of investment flows and industrial demand, she added. “Over the past 20 years, silver’s annualized volatility has been up to twice that of gold, underscoring its more cyclical nature.”The second major driver of the metals’ price action is safe-haven demand spurred by geopolitical uncertainty – both domestic and international.“Periods of policy transition and global re-alignment often increase demand for perceived safe haven assets,” Akullian wrote. “But rather than view precious metals purely as a haven, we believe they are best understood as portfolio stabilizers that have historically shown low or negative correlation to equities during periods of market stress.”She pointed out that diversification matters most when equity valuations are falling. “Since 2020, during months when the S&P 500 declined more than 5%, gold has delivered an average return of 2%, while the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has been closer to flat,” she said. “This asymmetry makes gold particularly valuable in drawdown scenarios.”The third major catalyst – this one specific to silver – is a surge in industrial demand coupled with relatively low liquidity.“Silver demand has reflected a more balanced mix of investment and industrial usage,” Akullian said. “About 60% of annual silver consumption is tied to electronics, solar panels and semiconductors. Electronics alone account for roughly 445 million ounces of silver demand per year, making it the largest industrial use of the metal.”“The ongoing buildout of data centers, rising power demand from AI workloads, and broader electrification trends add a potentially cyclical and growth-sensitive component to silver.”Given today’s economic and geopolitical realities, Akullian said she believes that gold and silver are more than just defensive assets. “Together in a portfolio, they can offer differentiated exposure: gold as a strategic diversifier and store of value, and silver as a higher-volatility metal with meaningful industrial demand,” she wrote. “[T]his means precious metals can serve both as portfolio differentiator and as a way to diversify within secular growth trends.”Akullian outlined how gold and silver can play complementary roles in investor portfolios.“Gold has historically functioned as a strategic ballast, particularly during equity market drawdowns, exhibiting low or even negative correlation to equities when diversification matters most,” she wrote. “We believe this has made gold one of the most consistent diversifiers during periods of market stress, and a critical portfolio tool in a time where stock-bond correlations have proven unreliable.”Silver, by contrast, has been more volatile and cyclical. “While it has not consistently provided the same benefits as gold, silver can help enhance diversification over full market cycles by offering greater upside potential during periods of economic expansion, reflation, and industrial growth,” Akullian said. “Given its higher volatility, the sizing of a silver position within a portfolio has often been smaller than that for gold.”“Gold and silver can help investors seek to balance resilience with opportunity by pairing diversification with exposure to long-term structural demand.”See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.