Gold holding steady as Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged
(Kitco News) – The gold market is holding its ground against the Canadian dollar as the Bank of Canada leaves interest rates unchanged and adopts a neutral, yet cautious, wait-and-see approach to inflation.As expected, Canada’s central bank left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.At the same time, the BoC struck a relatively positive tone in its outlook for the Canadian economy.“Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. There are still important risks and uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East and US trade policy,” the central bank said in its Monetary Policy Report.Because of heightened uncertainty, the BoC provided little forward guidance in its statement.“Governing Council will continue to assess the strength of the Canadian economy and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval,” the central bank said.The BoC’s rate decision is having little impact on domestic gold prices, as the precious metal continues to follow broader market trends. Spot gold, denominated in Canadian dollars, last traded at C$5,712.21 an ounce, up 0.24% on the day.In comparison, spot gold, denominated in U.S. dollars, last traded at US$4,062.20 an ounce, up 0.26% on the day.The gold market is holding its ground as inflation pressures begin to ease, giving global central banks room to maintain relatively neutral monetary policies.
Silver’s stubborn supply deficits and rising industrial and monetary demand offer ‘multiple avenues for future appreciation’
(Kitco News) – Silver enjoys a unique combination of ongoing supply deficits, rising industrial and monetary demand, and tight physical market conditions, which offer multiple vectors for prices to appreciate, according to Paul Wong, managing partner and market strategist at Sprott Inc.In a recent analysis of the precious metals market, Wong noted that silver prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2011 in June.“For the quarter ended June 30, silver fell $16.57/oz, or -22.04%, the worst quarter since the first quarter of 2020 during COVID panic selling,” he noted. “Silver’s selling wave in June tracked gold’s plunge and was driven by the same macro forces: an expectedly hawkish Fed raising short-term rates and the U.S. dollar. Silver easily broke below support levels in a near-waterfall pattern, suggesting capitulation-driven selling sentiment.”But Wong still sees silver in a very strong position from a fundamental as well as a technical standpoint.“Despite the recent wrenching volatility, over a multi-decade period, the silver chart remains among the most bullish chart patterns we are aware of,” he said.“Silver’s price behavior over recent weeks reminds investors that it is one of the most volatile parts of the precious metals complex,” Wong wrote. “The sharp correction may have tested sentiment, but silver’s long-term bullish fundamentals appear unchanged. These rest on the combination of constrained supply and growing demand.”Wong noted that the silver market has been running persistent structural deficits for several years in a row. “Annual supply shortfalls have steadily reduced inventories,” he said. “Unlike many commodities, there are few large new mining projects that could materially alter the medium-term supply outlook. Silver supply is relatively inelastic even as demand continues to expand.”In an interview with Kitco News this week, Wong said that Sprott projects these supply deficits will continue for the foreseeable future.“Right now, it’s been running deficits for seven or eight years, and it’ll probably continue to run deficits for seven or eight years going forward,” he said.Sprott believes that while silver’s sharp price pullback has soured sentiment, it has not altered the structural bull case.“Several secular growth trends support demand,” Wong wrote in the report. “Solar panel manufacturing, electrification, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, data centers and a wide range of technology applications underpin industrial demand for silver. Military consumption is also becoming increasingly important as silver’s conductivity and strategic importance gain recognition across defense supply chains. Even in a slower economic environment, many of these end markets are likely to remain supportive.”Wong told Kitco News that massive bets in the options market played a big part in silver’s parabolic rally, and the unwinding of these positions also magnified the price decline that followed.“Until you get rid of all these crazy options positions, it’s more of a meme stock than a commodity in the short term,” he said. “But eventually what happens is you’ll shake out the option guys.”Wong said he’s encouraged to see that the silver options market is getting back to the normalized range.“If you [look at] call options outstanding, open interest, and you run a standard deviation bar, I think it reached four or five standard deviations above their norm,” he said. “They’re back to about close to mean now.”And monetary demand for silver is also increasing alongside that of gold. “Investors often focus on gold as the primary monetary metal, but silver has historically participated in periods of currency debasement and monetary uncertainty,” he wrote in the report. “In this environment, silver benefits due to its growing appeal as an alternative store of value, essentially a higher-beta expression of the same themes that support the gold market.”Silver’s physical market dynamics also remain constructive. “Tightness in physical inventories and ongoing delivery pressures have reinforced the view that physical demand remains strong relative to available supply,” he wrote. “As more metal flows toward Asian markets and physical ownership continues to gain importance, paper-market pricing mechanisms may become less influential over time.”And despite silver’s dramatic selloff, he said this kind of dramatic price action is not unusual for the gray metal. “Silver has shown significantly greater volatility than gold due to its smaller and less liquid market,” Wong said. “Sharp drawdowns are a normal feature of silver bull markets, not evidence that the underlying fundamentals have failed. Historically, some of silver’s strongest advances have occurred following periods of severe volatility and investor frustration.”He also told Kitco News that in the same way that the gold price has enjoyed a rising floor as its relatively inelastic monetary demand has grown, the silver price will likely benefit from the same higher price floor as its essential industrial applications – and its own monetary demand – gradually crowd out less essential uses such as photography, silverware, and some jewelry applications.“When the percentage becomes more essential input, its inelasticity will rise with it,” he said.Sprott views the overall long-term price outlook for silver in a very positive light. “Silver’s unique combination of persistent supply deficits, expanding industrial demand, increasing monetary relevance, and tight physical market conditions provides multiple avenues for future appreciation,” the report stated.
Gold and silver rally as CPI cools Fed-rate pressure
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are sharply higher ahead of the North American market open Tuesday, as a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report reduced Fed-rate pressure and helped metals recover despite another spike in crude oil tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,089.10 an ounce, up 2.22%, while spot silver was trading near $59.12, up 2.78% on the session.Gold’s early range was $3,985.00 to $4,101.50, leaving the metal back above the $4,000 area and testing the $4,091 resistance zone identified in the latest technical setup. Silver’s early range was $56.76 to $59.45, with the metal recovering the $58.00 area and testing resistance near the 50-period moving average.This morning’s CPI report shifted market positioning back in favor of precious metals. Headline CPI fell 0.4% in June after rising 0.5% in May, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, while the 12-month rate slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and eased to 2.6% year over year from 2.9%. The data undercut the inflation scare that followed last week’s oil rally and Wednesday’s Fed minutes, reducing pressure on traders to price another near-term Fed hike. The 10-year Treasury yield remained in the 4.6% area but moved off its early highs, while the U.S. dollar index softened as the market faded part of the higher-for-longer trade.The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under severe military and shipping risk, not a normal operating environment and not a fully resolved blockade. Oil prices jumped again after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes, with Brent crude near $86.73 and Nymex WTI near $80.55 in early trade. The latest escalation keeps a geopolitical risk premium under oil and a defensive bid under gold, but the soft CPI print has changed the immediate market transmission. For gold and silver, lower inflation data is now offsetting the oil-driven inflation channel; for broader markets, the setup is oil bid, equities mixed, yields off their highs and the dollar softer.Traders are watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony, follow-through in Treasury yields after the CPI print and any further disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A sustained break above the $4,091 to $4,107 resistance area would improve gold’s short-term setup, while another oil spike would keep the market focused on whether energy inflation reappears in July data.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $80.55 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $86.73. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,091, with a sustained move targeting the 50-period moving average near $4,087 and then $4,140. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959, with deeper downside targets at $3,942 and then $3,886. First resistance is seen at $4,091 and then at $4,140. First support is seen at $4,021 and then at $3,959.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the 50-period moving average near $59.61, with a move above that level targeting $61.71 and then $62.81. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.73, with deeper downside targets at the $56.00 to $58.00 accumulation zone and then $55.60. First resistance is seen at $59.61 and then at $61.71. Next support is seen at $57.73 and then at $55.60.
Fed Chair Warsh tells Congress the FOMC has ‘no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation’
(Kitco News) – New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used the opening statement of his first testimony before Congress to present a positive depiction of the state of the economy, and a vision for monetary policy centered on the price stability side of the central bank’s dual mandate.“The Fed’s number one objective is to get monetary policy right—or as near to it as we possibly can,” Warsh told the Committee on Financial Services of the U.S. House of Representatives. “That is our clear and constant aim, the star we steer by. And if we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.”The Fed chair said that while monthly price fluctuations are inevitable, “underlying inflation over longer time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy,” adding that the members of the FOMC “have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”Warsh painted a positive picture of the U.S. economy, saying that “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” that “household consumption growth is moderate,” while manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year,” but noted that the housing sector “continues to lag.”The Fed chair characterized surging business investment as the “most striking feature of the economy right now.” “The rapid pace—which appears to be accelerating—reflects, in large part, the construction of data centers and the immense demand for the AI-related equipment and software that fill them,” he said. “We at the Fed are monitoring the implications for inflation and the labor market.”Turning to the supply side, Warsh said that productivity growth has been strong, and that strength began before the current gains from AI adoption. “America’s labor market appears broadly stable. Job creation has kept pace with the workforce. The unemployment rate is low and has changed little over the past year,” he said. “We’re seeing relatively few layoffs, only slight variance in the rate of job vacancies, and solid growth in nominal wages.”The Fed chair also referred to the five task forces he appointed to explore ways to improve their conduct of monetary policy. “We have a duty to point the institution forward—to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives,” he said. “The purpose here is to equip the Fed to make better decisions in monetary policy and to put these years of high inflation behind us.”
Precious metals prices slide amid renewed Gulf strikes, Perth Mint silver bar and coin demand collapses
(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices saw a sharp reversal of their recent fortunes after the latest round of conflict between Iran and the United States, and while central banks are using the opportunity to load up on gold, investors’ appetite for physical silver is evaporating, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.In their latest update, the analysts noted that the latest exchanges of military strikes in the Gulf are putting significant strain on the ceasefire.“Having signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 17 June, Iran and the US held talks that had been progressing peacefully if not smoothly,” they wrote. “The occasional Truth Social post aside, the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil and the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz showed that at least a working relationship existed between the sides. This relationship seems to have ended abruptly on 6 July when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at commercial ships, prompting retaliatory strikes from the US. Iran followed with strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.”The analysts noted that precious metal prices dropped across the board in the wake of these strikes. “The gold price fell back below $4,100/oz and silver below $60/oz,” they said. “Along with this, oil rallied with Brent Crude and the WTI topping $80/bbl and $75/bbl respectively on Wednesday, prompting a resurfacing of fears that the conflict could have an impact on price stability and, ultimately, monetary policy. Since then, oil prices have fallen slightly and precious metal prices have rebounded. This is a clear sign that the market expects this flare-up to be similar to others in which a couple of days of strikes and heightened rhetoric ultimately dissipate back into cautious and slow-moving negotiations.”Heraeus also pointed out that central banks were strong buyers of bullion in May, purchasing 41 net tonnes of gold.“The central banks of Poland and China led the way, purchasing 18 tonnes and 10 tonnes, respectively,” they noted. “The National Bank of Poland’s reserves now stand at 614 tonnes, meaning it has surpassed the Netherlands as the tenth-largest gold reserve holder in the world and is only 86 tonnes short of its 700-tonne target.Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also increased their reserves by 9 tonnes and 7 tonnes, respectively in May. “These purchases come mainly from domestic production allowed for by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s priority rights to buy gold produced in their countries,” the analysts noted. Meanwhile, China added to its gold reserves for the twentieth consecutive time last month. “The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) purchased 15 tonnes of gold in June,” they wrote. “This was the biggest monthly addition since October 2023 when it purchased nearly 22 tonnes. The PBoC now holds 2,346 tonnes of gold which makes up around 9% of the value of its total reserves.”Spot gold slid down to test the $4,000 support level following the North American open, and it continues to trade close to its session low on Monday morning, last trading at $4,013.64 for a loss of 2.60% on the session.Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts pointed out that demand for bars and coins from one of the world’s leading mints has collapsed during the ongoing price correction. “The Perth Mint announced silver sales of 294 koz in June, down 19% from 364 koz in May which was itself the lowest monthly total since April 2012,” they wrote. “June’s sales also marked a 37% year-on-year reduction from the 464 koz of silver sold in June 2025. This came as the silver price dropped 22% in June from $75/oz to $58.5/oz. Gold bar and coin sales fared better though, with 29.7 koz sold, an increase of 53% from 19.4 koz in May.”Sierra Gorda supports longer-term silver production growth. And the expansion of the Sierra Gorda joint venture, owned by KGHM and South32, will add a fourth grinding line to increase processing capacity by roughly 25%.“The first production from the expansion is expected in 2030 and full production rates in 2031,” the analysts said. “Once completed, the project is projected to incrementally lift annual silver production to around 1.7 moz, alongside higher copper, molybdenum and gold output. KGHM is one of the world’s largest silver producers, with the Group producing 43.3 moz of silver in 2025.”Silver prices are continuing to test their lows on Monday morning as they flirt with a 3% drop on the session.Spot silver last traded at $58.089 per ounce for a loss of 2.97% on the daily chart.
Bank of America sees value in gold miners even after cutting 2026 gold price forecast
(Kitco News) – While gold prices could continue to struggle through the second half of the year as markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, one bank still sees plenty of opportunity in precious metals, with particularly attractive value in the mining sector.Commodity analysts at Bank of America have been curbing their enthusiasm for the gold market since late June, and last week they officially downgraded their 2026 average gold price forecast by 14% to US$4,360 an ounce.However, the bank is not giving up on the precious metal, remaining bullish over the long term. Meanwhile, as gold prices consolidate, Bank of America’s equity analysts see compelling value in mining stocks.The shift in the bank’s outlook comes as Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, even as inflation pressures ease. The analysts said that in this environment they expect to see a rotation away from overvalued equities and into previously overlooked sectors.“Higher interest rates reduce the money supply, which means tighter financial conditions for businesses. All else being equal, it’s a bearish sign for equities,” the analysts said in the report. “Higher rates, lower free cash flows, and record index concentration have sent investors into stocks that are smaller, less expensive, and less crowded. There is scope for more rotation: $21tn in US household cash is 33% over the pre-Covid trend, & cash with -1% after-tax real yield is no prize.”While Bank of America sees several undervalued segments of the market, including fixed income, banks, and Latin American equities, the mining sector also ranks near the top of its list.The analysts noted that gold miners have become one of the market’s most profitable sectors as higher gold prices have pushed margins to record highs, allowing companies to strengthen their balance sheets.“Gold miner free cash flow is 10x higher than it was in 2020, with half the long-term debt as a percentage of equity,” the analysts said. “Gold miner earnings yields are the highest of any sector at 12.0% and are at the least expensive relative to the S&P 500 in the last 20 years.”At the same time, BofA said metals equities are trading at a 19% discount to their net asset values.The analysts also noted that, like gold itself, mining equities can provide important portfolio diversification.“Gold miners have low correlations to both equities & fixed income (0.3 & 0.2 over the last 10 years),” the analysts said.
Central banks are voting for gold with their balance sheets
(Kitco News) – Actions speak louder than words. That old cliché should be one of the defining themes in the gold market through the second half of the year.Last month, two central bank surveys delivered an unmistakable message. The World Gold Council found that a record 45% of central banks expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, while OMFIF’s annual survey showed that reserve managers continue to rank gold among their preferred reserve assets as they diversify portfolios in an increasingly fragmented global financial system.Surveys, however, only tell us what policymakers intend to do. What has happened since then has added considerably more weight to that sentiment.The latest reserve data show that central banks aren’t merely expressing confidence in gold—they are acting on their convictions.The World Gold Council reported that central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to official reserves in May, continuing what has become a multi-year trend of robust sovereign demand. Then, as gold prices extended their correction in June, some of the market’s largest official buyers became even more active.China’s central bank increased its reserves by another 15 tonnes, marking its 20th consecutive month of purchases and its largest monthly addition this year. Poland has been even more aggressive. The National Bank of Poland has accumulated 82 tonnes during the first half of 2026, with Governor Adam Glapiński openly acknowledging that the central bank has been taking advantage of lower prices to build its reserves.That point deserves more attention because it stands in sharp contrast to sentiment among retail investors. Speculative traders have left the gold market in search of momentum in AI stocks, while investors have liquidated their holdings as opportunity costs have risen.But at what point do investors start following the path that central banks are laying out?Central banks are not buying gold because they expect next month’s inflation report to surprise to the upside or because they believe the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. They are not attempting to trade momentum.They are making long-term monetary decisions.Reserve managers measure risk in decades, not quarters. They are building balance sheets designed to withstand geopolitical shocks, currency volatility, and a global financial system that is becoming increasingly multipolar. Gold’s appeal lies in its monetary characteristics: it is liquid, universally accepted, free of counterparty risk, and independent of any single government’s fiscal or monetary policy.That is why recent price weakness has failed to discourage official-sector demand. In fact, lower prices have simply provided central banks with a more attractive entry point.Investors should take note.That’s it for this week. Have a great weekend.
Wall Street and Main Street sentiment split after another week of weakness from gold as all eyes turn to CPI and Warsh testimony
(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as renewed Middle East uncertainty and bargain-hunting failed to offset pressure from elevated Treasury yields, a resilient U.S. dollar, and fresh evidence that the Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation.Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,175.71 per ounce on Sunday evening, and the yellow metal initially pushed higher as traders continued to monitor the U.S.-Iran conflict and the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The move carried into Monday’s session, when gold set its weekly high at $4,202.67 per ounce, but the rally quickly faded as oil-linked inflation concerns reinforced expectations that the Fed would remain cautious on rates.The selling accelerated Tuesday and Wednesday, with gold breaking below $4,100 as traders looked ahead to the minutes from the June FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon. The minutes showed growing concern among policymakers about elevated inflation, with some officials making the case for an immediate rate hike and many others seeing hikes as necessary if inflation remained sticky. Gold ultimately set its weekly low at $4,021.76 per ounce on Wednesday as higher yields and a stronger dollar limited safe-haven demand.Gold prices then rebounded Thursday after weekly jobless claims came in at 215,000, slightly below expectations, while the dollar eased and traders reassessed the likelihood of a July rate hike. But the recovery stalled below $4,140 as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran kept oil prices supported and maintained pressure on inflation expectations.After failing to reclaim $4,150, spot gold closed the week at $4,120.67 per ounce, with a last-minute push leaving the yellow metal comfortably above $4,100 per ounce and nearly flat on the day, but still over 1.4% lower on the weekly chart.The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street and Main Street divided and indecisive on gold’s near-term prospects after the yellow metal failed to break out of its recent consolidation channel.“Neutral,” said Adam Button, head of currency strategy at investingLive. “It’s hard to get excited while the shooting continues in Iran. Risks are to the upside for oil, so probably to the downside for gold.”“Bull,” said Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter. “Gold may now see $4700-$4800 in the next few weeks.”Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at StoneX Group, told Kitco News he sees further weakness from gold and silver before they catch a meaningful bid.“The chart just looks really broken right now on gold,” he said. “It looks like we can continue to go a little bit lower.”Pavilonis said he thinks the money is moving into international markets rather than the metals.“I think a big driver of silver and gold when they were rallying was a lot of the Asian markets were jumping into those metals,” he said. “Now it seems like there’s a lot of tech companies… the money has just moved to different markets, and gold, at least for the time being, has lost its shine.”“Looking at the chart here – whether it’s gold or anything else, without labeling it – the market just looks like it’s creeping lower and we’re sitting on a fault line, on these lows,” Pavilonis said. “There’s probably a lot of [sell] orders underneath these levels, and if we slip through those, I think we’ve got another leg down.”Pavilonis said if gold does break below the recent lows, he expects it to fall to the $3,800 – $3,600 range, if not lower. “I think we peek below that, and then there’s probably a washout there, and then maybe we can continue to go higher.”Looking ahead to next week’s CPI data, Pavilonis said he doesn’t see inflation driving gold prices to a significant degree in the near term.“Inflation could seem somewhat transient,” he said. “The expectation is that we’re seeing maybe a little inflation here, but it should dissipate. I don’t see that moving through into demand and building into the demand side of things. We don’t seem to quite be in the same kind of situation we were in when gold saw positive feedback loops: the market moves higher, and then people jump on the bandwagon and this is the reason why, and so on and so forth. Right now, it just seems that it’s weak.”“There’s not a lot of buying interest,” Pavilonis added. “I’m not seeing a lot of flow on my side, and the market’s been slapped down so many times on the bullish side. There’s been a few times since the market had that sharp sell-off back in March, and a lot of people got long again, and then it got battered down again. Then it tried to make another move, and then slowly but surely the market’s been unwinding.”“I think traders are wanting to see more of a solid low, and some rational reason why to get long and I don’t think inflation is it,” he said. “If we see consecutive inflation numbers, inflation growing, that’s one thing. But an inflation number with a new Fed that doesn’t really seem as serious about inflation, and possibly even letting inflation run a little bit, it just doesn’t seem like you need to be in a safe-haven asset.”Pavilonis said the longs that are entering the gold market are operating on a kind of hindsight bias where “It’s like, ‘Hey, gold was up here, and now it’s down here, so it’s pretty cheap.’ But the narrative has changed,” he said. “Those buyers are getting stopped out, and the market is due for probably another slice lower. And then, after that flush, I think you come in and buy it. And that might take some time.”This week, 13 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment spread across bullish, bearish and undecided following gold’s lack of conviction. Five experts, or 38%, expected to see gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while three others, representing 23% of the total, predicted a price decline. The remaining five analysts, or 38%, saw the yellow metal trending sideways next week. Meanwhile, 282 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors renouncing their bullish bias in the face of gold’s underperformance. 117 retail traders, or 42%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while 108 others, or 38%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 57 investors, representing 20% of the total, expected to see consolidation during the coming week.After a slow post-Independence-Day week, next week’s calendar has more meat on the bone, with last month’s CPI report and new Fed chair Warsh’s first testimony in Washington the definite highlights, but plenty more economic data for markets to digest.On Tuesday morning, traders will be watching US CPI for June, while Kevin Warsh begins to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.Wednesday will bring US PPI for June, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision, while Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee.On Thursday, markets will be watching the June Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, and weekly jobless claims, followed by the Pending Home Sales report.And on Friday morning, markets will receive June Housing Starts and Building permits, followed by the University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for July.“Gold is uninspiring,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “Although it took out last week’s high on Monday when it reached nearly $4203, within two days it slid back to $4022. In order to lift the tone, the tarnished metal must rise above the downtrend line connecting the late May and mid-June and early July highs. It is near $4126 at the start of next week and finished the week around $4066.”Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, told Kitco News he’s still waiting to see signs of sustained strength from the precious metals, and the recent moves higher have been unconvincing.“Significantly, gold is approaching five percent down for the year, and silver’s been down almost 15 percent,” he said. “We just haven’t seen the allure, on the physical side, come back to the way it was. It’s a struggle for people. The volatility has been retreating most recently, but rallies continue to be sold here.”“We’re still elevated,” Lusk continued. “We’re double the price we were a couple years ago, in 2024. But what are the new drivers that are going to take you to $5,000 and beyond? I’m not sure we’re seeing that. So I just think there’s a pause here. I think a lot of investors are just way more comfortable with the returns they’re getting in the [stock market] here, versus, what we’ve seen in the metals.”Lusk said he’s looking to next week’s June CPI report to provide some direction, but it won’t necessarily be good news for gold.“We’re going to have another bit of inflation data next week, so we’ll see what that brings,” he said. “But if it’s hotter, then the dollar’s going to rise and that’s going to put pressure on gold.”“I think seasonally we should do a little bit better in the next two months, once you go into Labor Day, concluding summer,” he said. “The Fed’s not going to [raise rates], even if the employment situation improves. I think they’re going to sit on their hands for a while.”Lusk said investors need to appreciate the magnitude of gold’s recent rally from a historical context.“We were around $5,600, and then we had a low of $3,900… big move, $1,600. But that’s after a big run-up. For this thing to really turn higher, we’ve really got to close over, in my estimation, $4,500, if not $4,700. We’ve got a long way up.”“We’ve seen dips below $4,000, but they haven’t stayed there for long,” Lusk added. “Silver dips down in the high to mid-fifties. We’ll see what happens.”Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline once again next week.“Gold’s impressive rebound last week failed to gain momentum this week,” he noted. “Despite reports of substantial central bank purchases of the metal, a downward trend has persisted since around mid-May, and the resistance line running through recent highs has fallen from $4,750 to $4,150. On the other hand, gold has so far managed to avoid falling below the psychologically significant round figure of $4,000 for any sustained period. Geopolitical news should be acting as a catalyst, but in reality, the oil market is ignoring much of the bellicose rhetoric, and the debt markets are following suit, taking their time to return to expectations of tighter monetary policy. This is helping gold to stage a fairly orderly retreat.”“A significant factor is that, for the time being, gold is retreating through relatively uncontested territory, whilst much stronger support is likely to emerge as it approaches the $4,000 mark,” Kuptsikevich added.Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see gold prices rise next week.“HIGHER unless we fail below the line mentioned in the ‘lower timeframe basis’ below,” he wrote. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,651.1. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)—we attained $1,300.0. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,248.2 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,205.2 of pressure. These are ON HOLD.”“On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $962.3,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $863.1. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $836.9. The break below 47420 brought in $786.6 of pressure. On 5/15 we left a medium bearish reversal—we have come off $597.8 from 45532. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $448.2. On 6/18 we left a minor bearish reversal—we have come off $323.9 from the 42793 open. These are ON HOLD. We held macro exhaustion at 39741-357 with a 39554 low and bounced $260.1—if this holds and we start a bona fide bullish correction, the minimum target is 49636. The trade above 40288 (-11 tics per/hour) brought in $186.7 of strength. These are OFF HOLD. We held exhaustion at 41795-2324 with a 42155 high and rolled over $183.0 into a bearish correction/trend against the move up from 39554. This is ON HOLD. The break below 40428-21 and back above is currently bringing in some of the decent strength warned about—we have seen $105.6. Yesterday left a minor bullish reversal.”At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,120.67 per ounce for a loss of 1.43% on the week and 0.08% on the day.
Gold rebounds, silver soars as easing oil, softer dollar lift metals
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday, as crude oil prices pulled back, Treasury yields eased and the U.S. dollar weakened after Wednesday’s Fed-minutes and Hormuz-driven selloff. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,120.80 an ounce, up 1.13%, while spot silver was trading near $59.95, up 2.82% on the session.Gold’s session range was $4,053.60 to $4,134.90, leaving the metal back above the $4,100 area but still below the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s session range was $57.47 to $60.62, with the metal recovering the $60.00 area after Wednesday’s break but still below the $61.00 to $62.00 resistance band.Positioning after last Thursday’s June employment report and Wednesday’s Fed minutes remains two-sided. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000, initially supporting gold by reducing confidence in another near-term Fed hike. The Fed minutes then showed several officials were still concerned enough about inflation to keep a September hike in play, but Thursday’s jobless claims data pointed to a labor market cooling through slower hiring rather than rising layoffs.The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.53% after reaching a seven-week high near 4.60% Wednesday, while the 2-year yield slipped toward 4.16% and DXY fell back below 101.00. That gave metals room to rebound, although the rate path remains capped by next week’s CPI report.The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under elevated military and shipping risk, not a confirmed chokepoint closure. U.S. strikes on Iranian targets have continued, and Iran has retaliated against regional targets, but there has been no naval blockade and reports of Iranian tankers moving crude through the strait helped cool the oil-risk premium. Brent crude fell back below $76 a barrel and WTI traded near $71 as traders priced a lower probability of an immediate supply disruption. For gold, the shift was supportive because lower oil reduced the inflation impulse that had lifted yields and the dollar Wednesday. For broader markets, the trade moved from oil bid and bonds under pressure to oil offered, yields lower, dollar softer and precious metals firmer.Traders are watching next week’s CPI release, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and any renewed disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A cooler CPI print would reduce September hike risk and give gold a cleaner path to test the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone, while a fresh oil spike would bring the inflation-rate channel back into focus.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $75.50. The U.S. dollar index is lower and trading near 100.80. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.53% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,362.63. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,041.65, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,162.36 and then at $4,214.34. First support is seen at $4,072.40 and then at $4,041.65.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.44 and then $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and then the 50-day moving average at $70.53. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.53, with deeper downside targets at $55.60 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $59.44 and then at $63.28. Next support is seen at $58.53 and then at $55.60.
Gold, silver soften as Hormuz oil risk keeps yields firm
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are modestly lower ahead of the North American market open Friday, as traders balanced last week’s weaker payrolls report against Wednesday’s Fed minutes, steady Treasury yields and renewed Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,104.30 an ounce, down 0.44%, while spot silver was trading near $59.49, down 0.57% on the session.Gold’s early range was $4,093.70 to $4,135.50, leaving the metal above the $4,090 area but still below the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s early range was $59.15 to $60.89, with the metal holding above Thursday’s lows but failing to reclaim the $61.00 area.Positioning after last Thursday’s June employment report and Wednesday’s Fed minutes remains mixed for precious metals. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, about half of expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. That softer labor-market backdrop initially supported gold by reducing confidence in further Fed tightening, but the minutes kept inflation risk in focus and left traders reluctant to add aggressively to long metals exposure. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.53% and DXY was near 100.87, leaving gold supported by softer hiring momentum but capped by yields that remain elevated.The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under elevated political and shipping risk, not a confirmed chokepoint closure. Oil prices were choppy after a series of unclaimed strikes in southern Iran, while Washington and Tehran both continued to say the waterway must remain open. Iran has argued that vessels should pay fees to transit the strait, which carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas flows, but the market is not pricing a full blockade. Brent crude traded near $77.08 and WTI near $72.73, keeping a geopolitical bid under energy while limiting gold’s upside through the inflation-yield channel.Traders are watching the next CPI release, any follow-through in Hormuz shipping disruptions and Fed communication after Wednesday’s minutes. A cooler inflation print would reduce the pressure from real yields and give gold a cleaner path to test the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone, while another oil spike would keep the market focused on inflation risk and the Fed’s reaction function.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $72.73 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $77.08. The U.S. dollar index is steady near 100.87. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.53% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,091.00 to $4,103.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,140.00 and then $4,203.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,959.00 and then $3,942.00. First resistance is seen at $4,135.50 and then at $4,162.36. First support is seen at $4,093.70 and then at $4,053.60.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.44 and then $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and then the 50-day moving average at $70.53. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.53, with deeper downside targets at $55.60 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.89 and then at $63.28. Next support is seen at $59.15 and then at $58.53.
