Gold price pushes to session highs as U.S. existing home sales drop 2.4%
(Kitco News) – Gold prices are holding renewed support above $4,100 an ounce and could attract new momentum as the U.S. housing market remains lackluster, with home sales continuing to struggle.Total existing-home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, dropped 2.4 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in June, compared to a sales rate of 4.19 million in May, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced Thursday.According to consensus estimates, economists were forecasting an unchanged reading. The report noted that home sales were also up 1.8% year over year.Although the gold market is not seeing a significant rally in its initial reaction to the disappointing home sales, prices have pushed to session highs. Spot gold last traded at $4,134.10 an ounce, up nearly 1.5% on the day.
Gold’s selloff is just a pause in a secular bull market, miners now undervalued
(Kitco News) – Gold investors shouldn’t mistake the precious metal’s sharp correction for the start of a new bear market, according to one portfolio manager, who argues that the long-term fundamentals remain intact and the recent weakness has created an attractive buying opportunity across both bullion and mining equities.In an interview with Kitco News, Nawojka Wachowiak, Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, said investors need to resist getting caught up in short-term market swings and instead focus on the structural forces that continue to support gold.”I see this as a pause in what remains a broader bull market for gold,” she said. “The only problem is I just don’t know how long this pause will last.”Wachowiak’s views have been highlighted in Ninepoint’s mid-year outlook, published last month, which describes gold’s decline as a “healthy correction” that has flushed speculative positions from the market while creating a stronger foundation for the next leg higher. The firm said the pullback has established a new trading floor while leaving the long-term fundamentals supporting gold firmly intact.Gold has struggled in recent months as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and uncertainty surrounding new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh have weighed on investor sentiment. However, Wachowiak said those headwinds have overshadowed the much bigger picture.”At the beginning of 2026, central bank demand was strong, geopolitical risk was elevated, concerns over U.S. debt was growing, the U.S. dollar was weakening and expectations for rate cuts were building,” she said. “All the boxes for gold’s rally were checked.”While some of those factors have temporarily taken a back seat as markets focus almost exclusively on Federal Reserve policy, Wachowiak stressed that the underlying bullish drivers have not disappeared.”It’s all about the Fed and the U.S. dollar right now,” she said. “But those longer term drivers still remain in place, and it’s important to step back and recognize that there’s a lot more going on here than just the next incremental economic data point.”She pointed specifically to continued central bank demand as one of the market’s most important sources of support. She explained that there is a growing recognition of gold’s role as a foundational reserve asset.Wachowiak also explained that persistent geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns over government debt as long-term catalysts that have not changed simply because investors have become fixated on interest-rate expectations.According to Wachowiak, the resilience of physical demand became evident when gold briefly fell below $4,000 an ounce before quickly recovering.”I thought it was really interesting, and very critical, that gold has held this $4,000 level,” she said. “It held because there’s a significant buyer in this physical market. When we see these corrections, that buyer is stepping in.”She added that central banks remain on pace to buy roughly 1,000 tonnes of gold this year—equivalent to roughly 15% to 20% of annual mine production—creating a powerful floor beneath the market.”If you have a buyer of that magnitude that steps in on pullbacks, you are going to find a floor.”Don’t let the noise distract youAlthough Wachowiak acknowledged that the current environment has been unusually volatile, she said investors need to avoid making emotional decisions based on daily headlines.”In this kind of environment, you have to constantly step back, look at the big picture and try not to react to every headline,” she said”Instead, she said Ninepoint continues to focus on identifying quality companies and preparing for the next leg higher.”We’re looking for quality investments,” she said. “This creates opportunities for us.”She added that the firm’s investment process hasn’t changed despite the correction.”We keep doing the site visits, keep doing what we’re doing, because we believe we’re going to come out the other end of this.”Most importantly, she said investors shouldn’t allow short-term uncertainty to derail their long-term investment thesis.”You try not to let the noise take you away from that because, in the end, I’m still super excited and positive about the outlook for this sector,” she said. “As we come out of this pause, when it goes, it’ll go fast, and we want to be ready.”Gold miners remain exceptionally healthyWhile gold’s correction has weighed heavily on mining shares, Wachowiak argued that equity valuations have become disconnected from company fundamentals.”We’re still printing money at $4,000,” she said.”We have no debt. We still have plenty to continue those buybacks. So from a health perspective, this is a very, very healthy market, and it’s a very healthy gold industry.”Those comments are reinforced by Ninepoint’s latest outlook, which says gold producers are operating in the strongest financial environment in the industry’s history. Although rising energy prices could add between $70 and $95 an ounce to operating costs—and potentially lift industry costs by as much as 20% over the next year if oil prices remain elevated—the firm said the current gold price more than offsets those headwinds.According to Ninepoint, producers are currently generating roughly $3,000 an ounce in all-in sustaining cost margins, producing substantial free cash flow that continues to be returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.Wachowiak noted that many producers entered the recent spike in energy prices with fuel hedges and inventories purchased at lower prices, limiting the immediate impact of higher oil costs. Meanwhile, lower energy prices should provide an additional tailwind heading into the second half of the year.She added that although margins have narrowed from their peak earlier this year, profitability remains stronger than last year’s exceptionally strong levels.”The market has taken these stocks down so rapidly and so significantly that I think that has already been priced in.”Ninepoint argues that the disconnect between fundamentals and valuations has created one of the most compelling entry points in years.In its report, the firm said many gold equities continue to trade below historical valuation averages even as profit growth is expected to continue outpacing cost inflation. It added that the current pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity within a multi-year bull market rather than the beginning of a prolonged downturn.At current prices, Wachowiak estimates many producers are trading at roughly eight times EV/EBITDA, falling to around six times earnings if gold eventually returns to $5,000 an ounce.”We’re at bargain-basement valuations,” she said. “It just tells you that the money hasn’t really flowed in yet.”The bull market remains intactLooking ahead, Wachowiak said the industry’s challenge is no longer simply generating higher gold prices but demonstrating that today’s profitability is sustainable.She praised producers for maintaining disciplined balance sheets, returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and pursuing acquisitions that enhance value rather than simply adding production.She also said mining companies appear determined to preserve margins by maintaining conservative mine plans and investing in exploration rather than sacrificing profitability through adding lower-grade production.”The market is watching what they’re doing,” she said. “The industry is looking to capture that margin expansion.”
Russia’s gold reserves fall below $300 billion in June after sixth straight monthly decline
(Kitco News) – Russia’s state gold reserves fell below $300 billion at the end of last month amid a broader drop in the country’s total reserve assets, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR).The CBR valued the country’s gold reserves at $298.99 billion at the end of last month, according to a report released on Tuesday.The decline in reserve assets was also reflected in the central bank’s broader balance sheet. Total official reserve assets stood at $720.4 billion at the end of June, down from $747.4 billion in May.Meanwhile, foreign currency reserves were flat over the same period at $392.4 billion at the end of June, compared with $392.3 billion in May.This marks the sixth consecutive month that Russia’s official gold reserves have dropped, and the decline has been dramatic. In April, the CBR revealed that Russia’s gold reserves recorded the sharpest drop in a quarter century.As of May 1, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held 73.9 million ounces of gold bullion in its international reserves. In just one month, its gold reserves decreased by 200,000 ounces, bringing the total decline since the start of 2026 to 900,000 ounces. Consequently, the CBR’s total gold reserve fell to its lowest level since March 2022.In metric terms, the central bank lost 27.9 tonnes of gold between January and April, representing the most significant drop in their sovereign bullion reserves since 2002, according to World Gold Council data. In May of 2002, the CBR saw its gold holdings plummet by 41.5 tonnes in a single month.Over the course of the next 24 years, Russia’s central bank was generally a gold buyer, frequently purchasing hundreds of tonnes per year, and never sold more than 100,000 ounces or 3.1 tonnes of bullion in a single month. The lone exception was July of 2005, when 7.7 tonnes of gold came off the bank’s balance sheet.The CBR is selling gold to match parallel transactions involving sales of assets from the National Wealth Fund, which are part of the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves. “First and foremost, it is to cover the budget deficit, which reached 4.6 trillion rubles by the end of March,” Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalia Milchakova told The Moscow Times. “Without partial compensation from the Central Bank amid modest oil and gas revenues at the start of the year, this figure could have surpassed 5 trillion rubles.”“Additionally, the gold sales could have been aimed at building up foreign currency reserves, as a shortage emerged due to weak export earnings early in the year,” she added. “The precious metal was exchanged for yuan.”The April numbers are the latest in a string of larger-than-usual gold sales as Russia struggles under the combined weight of the Ukraine war and international sanctions. Russia’s gold reserves declined to 2,304.76 tonnes as of April 1, 2026, including a decrease of 6.22 tonnes in March alone, the Central Bank reported a month ago.Domestic demand for gold within Russia has skyrocketed as the country’s economy struggles in the fifth year of its war with Ukraine. According to the Moscow Exchange, the volume of gold transactions last month was up more than 350% compared to March of 2025, reaching 42.6 tonnes – 28.6 tonnes in swap transactions and 14 tonnes in spot transactions. With the ruble’s decline, the increase was even more dramatic: a 500% increase from the prior year, reaching 534.4 billion rubles, or $7.1 billion.“Sales to finance the budget deficit may continue amid a sharp increase in government spending compared to budget targets,” said Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global, in a comment to Reuters. “Such sales of gold from reserves by the Central Bank of Russia are entirely consistent with what other central banks are doing, especially in developing countries.”Russia’s gold reserves were built up primarily between 2002 and 2025, when it purchased over 1,900 tons of gold, buying just over 500 tonnes between 2008 and 2012, and 1,200 tonnes between 2014 and 2019. According to Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko, Russia’s net gold purchases have amounted to only 55.4 tons since 2020.“Currently, a number of central banks continue to sell gold due to the need to cover expenses, including defense costs,” Dudchenko said, adding that the money is also used to cover “rising energy prices and to support national currency exchange rates.”On Feb. 20, Russia’s central bank announced it had sold 300,000 ounces of gold from its reserves in January as prices hit record highs above $5,500 per ounce, lowering its total holdings to 74.5 million ounces. This was the first decrease in Russia’s gold reserves since October.Gold prices averaged roughly $4,700 per ounce in January, but peaked at $5,600 per ounce, so the bullion sales likely brought in somewhere between $1.41 billion and $1.68 billion.Even with the sale, the value of Russia’s gold reserves rose 23% in January to $402.7 billion as prices shot to record highs.In July, Bloomberg reported that Russia’s precious metals exports to China nearly doubled in value during the first half of 2025.“Chinese imports of Russian precious metal ores and concentrates, including gold and silver, jumped 80% to $1 billion from the same period a year earlier,” Bloomberg reported at the time, citing data from Trade Data Monitor and China’s customs office. “Bullion prices have climbed about 28% this year, boosted by heightened geopolitical risks and trade tensions, alongside buying by central banks and exchange-traded funds.”Russia is the world’s number-two gold producer – second only to China – with an annual output of over 300 tonnes. Russia’s central bank was also one of the world’s biggest sovereign gold buyers, but its purchases have fallen off since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The People’s Bank of China continues to be among the leading central bank buyers in recent years.Russia’s gold exports to China are up in volume terms, but much of the difference is also due to the gold price rally over the last 12 months, with spot prices rising nearly 43% over the last 12 months.The country’s gold miners are also supporting rising domestic retail demand, which hit a record high last year as Russians clamored for precious metals to protect the value of their savings. Russian consumers purchased 75.6 tonnes of gold in 2024, representing approximately 25% of the country’s annual production.The more recent rally in other precious metals has also boosted revenues among Russia’s top miners. “MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, one of the world’s top producers of palladium and platinum, has ramped up exports to China this year,” the report noted. “Prices for the two metals jumped 38% and 59%, respectively [in 2025].”
Investors flee gold ETFs in June as hawkish Fed expectations drive liquidation
(Kitco News) – Although gold prices are holding support above $4,000 an ounce, June proved to be a difficult month as rising opportunity costs continued to push investors out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds, according to the latest report from the World Gold Council.In its monthly ETF report, the WGC said that 74.3 tonnes of gold, valued at nearly $9 billion, flowed out of the ETF market last month. However, despite the ongoing liquidation, the global ETFs ended the first half of the year on a positive note, with net inflows of 17.6 tonnes, valued at $8 billion.North American-listed gold ETFs remained the biggest drag on the global market. Regional funds saw outflows of 42.4 tonnes last month, valued at $5.5 billion.“As new Fed Chair Warsh sent hawkish – as the market interpreted – signals and the US-Iran conflict pushed inflation fears up, expectations intensified of higher interest rates ahead. This anticipation contributed to rising real yields and a strengthening dollar, pushing up investors’ opportunity costs of holding gold,” the analysts said.Gold saw significant bearish price action, with prices falling below their 200-day moving average and briefly dipping below $4,000 an ounce as investors fled the ETF market.Looking ahead, commodity analysts expect the gold market to stabilize as the months-long correction toward support at $4,000 creates attractive value.Analysts at the World Gold Council expect inflows to pick up in the second half of the year.“The macro consensus scenario in our 2026 Mid-Year Gold Outlook suggests relatively stable gold performance in H2, with potential catalysts possibly brewing a breakout in other scenarios. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding geopolitics, economic growth and financial markets linger. This backdrop may continue to support investor demand for portfolio protection and sustain interest in gold ETFs as a strategic safe-haven allocation,” the analysts said.Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, European funds also saw a more modest decline, with holdings falling by 12.1 tonnes, valued at $817 million.“The European Central Bank hiked rates by 25bps, the first time since September 2023 citing inflation concerns amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. This move may have deterred some investors from gold. We have also observed continued outflows from FX-hedged products listed in the region, mainly in Switzerland, amid local currency depreciation against the dollar, adding to European fund losses in June,” the analysts said.Rounding out the global trend, Asian-listed ETFs saw outflows of 71.5 tonnes, valued at $2.2 billion. Despite the monthly volatility, analysts noted that Asian funds experienced their strongest first half of the year ever.“The June loss was mainly from Chinese funds, as local investor risk appetite continued to improve amid equity market gains and a weaker gold price. Japanese funds also saw outflows in the month as the Bank of Japan hiked rates, pushing up local investors’ opportunity cost of holding gold. India buckled the trend, attracting inflows in the month as local investors remained optimistic about the gold price and viewed the dip as a buying opportunity,” the analysts said.
