Gold and silver firm before U.S. open as dollar eases
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are higher ahead of the North American market open Friday, as a softer U.S. dollar gave metals room to rebound while traders balanced sticky inflation, Federal Reserve rate-hike risk and a less acute Strait of Hormuz shock. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,046.20 an ounce, up 0.50%, while spot silver was trading near $58.240, up 0.84% on the session.Thursday’s U.S. inflation update kept the Fed constraint in place before the cash equity open. May PCE inflation rose 4.1% from a year earlier, while personal income and consumer spending both rose 0.7% on the month. The data reinforced the view that easing is not the base case for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, even as lower oil prices have reduced the immediate inflation impulse from the Middle East shock.The June 17 Federal Reserve meeting remains the main positioning anchor for precious metals. Since the meeting, the cross-asset reaction has been a dollar-and-rates repricing rather than a sustained safe-haven bid: DXY was lower near 101.22 at 8:39 a.m. ET but remained close to its 52-week high of 101.80, while the 10-year Treasury yield was near the 4.4% area.The Strait of Hormuz situation has shifted from closure shock to managed transit risk. Vessel traffic through the strait doubled over the prior 24 hours Thursday to the highest level since late February, and ships were again transiting with satellite signals switched on, helping push Brent crude back toward prewar levels. The risk has not disappeared: a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel was struck near the Oman coast Thursday evening, and a U.S. official said an Iranian drone hit the ship. The current market impact is narrower than last week’s panic premium, with oil lower, the dollar softer and gold carrying an insurance bid rather than a full geopolitical squeeze.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $69.67 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $73.05. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,023.00 to $4,045.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,122.00 and then $4,170.85. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.08, with deeper downside targets at $3,886.46 and then $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at $4,045.00 and then at $4,122.00. First support is seen at $3,959.08 and then at $3,886.46.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $58.77 to $61.55 area, with a move above that zone targeting $62.00 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.40, with deeper downside targets at $51.64 and then $48.97. First resistance is seen at $58.77 and then at $61.55. Next support is seen at $55.40 and then at $51.64.
Spot gold hits session high near $4,080/oz after final Consumer Sentiment rises to 49.5, one-year and long-term inflation expectations ease
(Kitco News) – The gold market is trading at session highs after the latest data showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. improving, with both shorter and longer-term inflation expectations easing.The University of Michigan announced on Friday that the final reading of its Consumer Sentiment survey for June was 49.5. The data was slightly better than expectations, as the consensus forecast of economists called for a reading of 50. It was also better than the preliminary reading of 48.9, and well above May’s final reading of 44.8.“Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, rising about 10% above May as gas prices moderated,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “Increases were seen across income, wealth, and political affiliation. Expected business conditions over the next five years surged 16% as consumers’ worries over long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing. Still, sentiment remains in unfavorable territory at 13% below the February 2026 reading prior to the start of the Iran conflict, and nearly 20% less than a year ago.”“The cost of living remains at the forefront of consumers’ minds; for the third straight month, over half of consumers spontaneously mentioned that high prices are weighing down their personal finances.”Spot gold shot to a fresh session high and was testing the $4,080 per ounce level after the 10 am ET data release, and last traded at $4,074.13 per ounce for a gain of 1.17% on the day.The May index showed a drop in year-ahead and longer-run inflation expectations, though these remained high by historical standards.“Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down from 4.8% in May to a still-elevated 4.6% this month,” Hsu wrote. “The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations fell back from 3.9% last month to 3.3% in June, remaining a bit higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.”
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Gold prices struggling as U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation fears cool
(Kitco News) – Further resilience in the U.S. economy and muted inflation pressures are pulling gold prices lower, with the precious metal continuing to struggle around $4,000 an ounce.The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the final reading of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product on Thursday, saying the economy grew 2.1% quarter over quarter, up from the previous estimate of 1.6%. The data was stronger than economists’ expectations, as consensus forecasts had called for growth to remain unchanged.“Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending,” the report said. “From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 7.5 percent for government, 4.5 percent for private goods-producing industries, and 0.8 percent for private services-producing industries. The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were information; federal government; professional, scientific, and technical services; and durable goods manufacturing. The leading offsets were decreases in retail trade, wholesale trade, and finance and insurance.”In a separate report, the BEA also noted that while inflation pressures remain elevated, they are not accelerating. The government’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.3% last month, compared with a 0.2% increase in April. The data came in line with economists’ forecasts.The gold market continues to struggle, with its bear-market correction remaining firmly in place as prices fell below $4,000 an ounce in the initial reaction to the latest economic data.Spot gold last traded at $4,002.90 an ounce, relatively unchanged on the day.Although the inflation data should help ease expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates this year, investors could continue to seek new momentum trades in equity markets following the stronger-than-expected GDP data.
Gold steadies above $4,000 as Fed hike odds reset markets
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are also higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, with bargain hunting emerging after a four-session selloff while the dollar remains near a one-year high and Treasury yields hold near the 4.4% area. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,012.80 an ounce, up 0.36% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $58.130, up 1.44%.The latest U.S. inflation print did little to remove the Fed constraint on precious metals. May PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 4.1% from a year earlier, matching the annual consensus and coming in slightly below the 0.5% monthly forecast. U.S. stock futures strengthened after the release, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 2.3%, S&P 500 futures up 0.8% and Dow futures up 0.2%, reflecting relief that the print was not hotter than expected.The market is still trading off the June 17 Federal Reserve reset. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, but the updated projections moved the debate away from 2026 cuts and toward at least one possible hike before year-end. Nine Fed officials projected at least one hike in 2026, a shift that has left gold and silver exposed to higher real-rate expectations even as oil has backed away from its war premium.The Strait of Hormuz story is now less a closure shock and more a normalization test. Brent crude fell to $72.24 a barrel, near prewar levels, after tanker traffic through the strait doubled over 24 hours to the highest level since late February and vessels resumed transiting with satellite signals switched on. That has removed part of the immediate safe-haven bid for gold, softened inflation fear in energy markets and helped risk assets recover. The caveat is that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and shipping recovery remain politically fragile, so gold is losing the panic premium without fully exiting the geopolitical-risk trade.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around the $70 area, while Brent crude was near $72.24. The U.S. dollar index is firmer near 101.64. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,023.00 to $4,090.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,357.00 and then $4,597.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,900.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,830.00 and then $3,800.00. First resistance is seen at $4,023.00 and then at $4,090.00. First support is seen at $3,900.00 and then at $3,830.00.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $59.62 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $71.49 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.20, with deeper downside targets at $53.40 and then $51.26. First resistance is seen at $59.62 and then at $62.00. Next support is seen at $57.20 and then at $53.40.
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