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Gold breaks $4,000 as dollar rally pressures metals​

(Kitco NewWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are under heavy pressure in early U.S. trading Wednesday, as a stronger U.S. dollar, renewed Fed-rate repricing and easing oil-supply fears continue to weigh against haven demand. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $3,978.80 an ounce, down 3.19%, while spot silver was trading at $58.150, down 5.39% on the session.The latest market reaction since the June 17 Federal Reserve meeting has shifted from “higher for longer” to outright hike-risk positioning. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but June projections put the median year-end 2026 policy rate at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, while median 2026 PCE inflation rose to 3.6% from 2.7%. Gold has fallen more than 4% since the meeting, with the dollar pressing a 52-week high near 101.71 and traders cutting exposure to non-yielding assets ahead of Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. ET PCE, GDP, jobless claims, durable goods and personal income releases.The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s geopolitical pressure point, but the current price impact has shifted. The waterway has been characterized by an interim U.S.-Iran framework to halt the conflict and reopen shipping, followed by conflicting signals over control, navigation rights and tanker flows. Oil has sold off as more tankers pass through the strait and safety conditions improve, with WTI near $71.10 a barrel and Brent near $76.57. That has reduced the immediate inflation shock premium in crude, but it has not restored a bid to gold, which is trading more as a rate and dollar asset than a geopolitical hedge this morning.David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, framed the overnight gold action as a breakdown below $4,100 followed by a fast move to $4,050 and a failed recovery back through $4,100. The key takeaway is that $4,100 has flipped into resistance, while $4,020 to $4,030 remains the last nearby support shelf before the $4,000 psychological level. Morrison warned that a break below $4,000 could trigger a deeper stop-driven selloff, though he also noted that such a move could push daily MACD toward oversold territory.In silver, Morrison said the overnight break below $61.00 left the metal at its lowest level since early December, with the dollar’s rally adding pressure. He identified first meaningful support near $58.50, previously resistance in early December, followed by a larger support zone near $54.00, which marked resistance in October and November. His near-term read is that silver’s path of least resistance remains lower until buyers reappear.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $71.10 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $76.57. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and holding near a 52-week high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.3% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,100.00 to $4,180.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,221.00 and then $4,350.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,997.98 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,050.00 and then at $4,100.00. First support is seen at $4,020.00 to $4,030.00 and then at $4,000.00.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.00 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.00 and then $66.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.50, with deeper downside targets at $56.00 to $57.00 and then $54.00. First resistance is seen at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Next support is seen at $58.50 and then at $56.00 to $57.00.

ING Cuts Gold and Silver Forecasts as Rising Yields and Stronger Dollar Weigh on Prices​

(Kitco News) – Surging momentum in the U.S. dollar and elevated bond yields are taking their toll on the precious metals market, with gold prices dropping below $4,000 an ounce and hitting a new low for the year.Meanwhile, silver prices have fallen below $60 an ounce.Although gold and silver’s bear-market correction from their record highs in January has surprised some traders and analysts, Ewa Manthey, commodity analyst at ING, said in her latest precious metals report that the selloff highlights the extent to which markets have shifted their focus toward higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions.Markets continue to react to the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy meeting. Although the central bank left interest rates unchanged, it signaled support for a rate hike this year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also emphasized that price stability remains his top priority. Markets are pricing in a rate hike as early as September, and there are growing expectations of a second increase by December.The market’s aggressive tightening expectations have pushed the U.S. Dollar Index back above 100 points. The index is currently trading at 101.69, its highest level since May 2025.Given the growing headwinds for gold, Manthey said ING is lowering its gold price forecast for the second half of the year.”While we remain constructive on gold over the medium term, the near-term environment has become more challenging,” she said.ING now sees gold prices averaging $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 an ounce in the fourth quarter, down from previous forecasts of $4,850 and $5,000, respectively.Although the global financial institution does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year, Manthey suggested that investors shouldn’t fight the market.”Elevated yields and a strong dollar are likely to remain near-term headwinds for gold,” she said. “Geopolitical tensions have failed to generate the type of safe-haven inflows seen during previous periods of uncertainty. Instead, markets have focused on the inflationary implications of geopolitical developments and what they could mean for monetary policy.”ING is also downgrading its silver price forecast. The investment firm expects silver to average $68 an ounce in the third quarter and $74 an ounce in the fourth quarter, down from previous forecasts of $79 and $84, respectively.”While the silver market is expected to remain in deficit, some of the strongest demand drivers are becoming less supportive. Growth in solar demand is slowing, while continued thrifting and substitution in photovoltaic manufacturing are reducing silver intensity per panel,” Manthey said.Although gold and silver face a challenging environment through the second half of the year, Manthey said the market’s structural fundamentals remain intact.”Central bank demand remains robust, reserve diversification continues, and geopolitical risks remain elevated. However, higher yields and weaker investor demand are proving to be more powerful headwinds than we previously anticipated. Gold’s correction has prompted a reset in our forecasts, but not in our broader view of the market,” she said. “We continue to believe the structural drivers supporting gold remain intact, though the path higher is likely to be slower and more volatile than we previously expected. Despite the downgrade, we continue to expect silver to modestly outperform gold, supported by ongoing market deficits and broader electrification trends.”

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