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Spot gold rises from session lows as flash S&P composite PMI improves to 52.2​

(Kitco News) – The gold market is rising off of its earlier session lows after the latest U.S. data showed the services and manufacturing sectors improving beyond expectations this month.S&P Global reported on Tuesday that its flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in June, up from May’s reading of 51.5. The number was above expectations, as economists had forecasted a reading of 50.8.“US business activity growth improved for a third successive month in June,” the report noted. “However, the rate of growth remained weaker than at the start of the year. Companies also cut back on their staffing levels amid concerns over the outlook and in response to rising overheads, notably in terms of raw material prices. Input price inflation cooled but remained historically high, leading to an unchanged elevated rate of selling price inflation.”“The survey also showed an unbalanced economy, as sluggish demand for services contrasted with historically strong growth in demand for manufacturing goods, although the latter was again buoyed by precautionary stock building amid increasingly widespread supply issues.”The PMI for the service sector rose to 51.3 in June, up from January’s reading of 50.7. Activity in the service sector was also above expectations, as economists had forecasted a reading of 50.9.The U.S. manufacturing sector also improved. According to the report, the PMI for the manufacturing sector rose to 55.7, up from May’s reading of 55.1, and also above the consensus forecast of 54.1.The gold market was pulling off the session lows following the North American open and the latest PMI data. Spot gold last traded at $4,134.53 per ounce for a loss of 1.56% on the daily chart.“Brighter news out of the Middle East has helped restore some confidence among US businesses in June, though the overall rate of economic growth signalled by the flash PMI survey remains relatively sluggish compared to that seen earlier in the year in the lead up to the conflict,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “The survey signals that current output levels are consistent with the economy struggling to grow much faster than a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter.”Williamson noted that the service sector continued to grow at a particularly subdued pace, reflecting customers’ dissatisfaction with high prices and low levels of consumer confidence. “While there is better news from the manufacturing sector, we remain concerned as factory growth continues to be temporarily buoyed by inventory building amid supply fears,” he said.“Most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector,” Williamson wrote. “Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials. However, while still running at one of the highest rates seen over the past four years, input cost inflation has shown signs of cooling in June thanks in part to the lower energy prices seen at the tail end of the survey data collection period.”

Deutsche Bank cuts 2026 gold price targets to $4,300/oz for Q3, $4,800/oz in Q4 as investor demand drops​

(Kitco News) – Demand for gold continues to evaporate as investors grow more concerned about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, necessitating a reduction of around 20% to gold price targets for the second half of 2026, according to Michael Hsueh, research analyst at Deutsche Bank.“Fed repricing, together with resilient US macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower,” Hsueh wrote in a research note published Tuesday.Deutsche Bank now expects gold prices to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of the year, down over 22% from the prior outlook, before rising to $4,800 in Q4, still representing a 17% reduction from their previous forecast.Hsueh warned that the bank’s fourth-quarter target is based on the expectation that the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026, but if the central bank decodes to hike rates as many as three to four times, gold could fall all the way to $3,800.He added that ongoing outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds showed that gold’s usual investor support is “notably absent,” while Chinese discounts to Comex prices mean mainland imports shouldn’t be expected to support the market.“The one pillar which remains strong is central bank demand,” Hsueh said, “and we expect this to be the case for some time to come.”As recently as mid-April, Deutsche Bank was projecting gold prices to reach the $6,000 per ounce range, driven by fiscal deficit concerns, de-dollarization flows, and the ongoing reallocation away from U.S. Treasuries by emerging-market central banks.On Feb. 3, Hsueh said that despite the volatility seen at the time, the gold market remained on track to hit $6,000 an ounce by the end of the year.”Gold’s thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors’ rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed. The conditions do not appear primed for a sustained reversal in gold prices, and we draw some contrasts between today’s circumstance and the context for gold’s weakness in the 1980s and 2013,” Hsueh said in his report.He added that Chinese investment demand will remain a key pillar of support for gold, noting that even as Western gold prices were dropping, premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange remained elevated.

Gold rebounds above $4,200 as markets weigh Fed hike risk, Iran progress​

(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as oil prices fell on progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and traders balanced lower energy-risk premiums against the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June signal. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,203.80 an ounce, up 1.16%, while spot silver was trading at $66.325, up 2.30% on the session.The latest post-Fed positioning remains rates-led. The June meeting left the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, while the dot plot showed more policymakers leaning toward higher rates in 2026 and Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit his own rate projection. The immediate market read remains unfavorable for metals when yields and the dollar rise, but Monday’s lower oil tape softened the inflation-shock channel that drove the hawkish repricing after the Fed decision.The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into gold, oil, rates and risk assets, but the latest U.S.-Iran setup is being priced as fragile de-escalation rather than a cleared supply route. High-level talks in Switzerland ended with technical talks scheduled for the rest of the week, and mediators said “encouraging progress” had been made. Iran said the strait was shut again over the weekend, while the U.S. said traffic continued. The market impact is disinflationary at the margin: Brent and WTI are lower, equity futures are mixed rather than defensive and gold is drawing support from lower energy-risk pressure without a full safe-haven bid. For silver, the same mix is supportive because lower yields help the investment side, while the still-fragile shipping backdrop keeps an inflation and industrial-risk premium in the complex.U.S. equity futures were mixed before the open. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, Dow futures were unchanged and Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%. The move followed stronger Asian trading, with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 closing at another record, while investors waited for the May personal consumption expenditures price index later this week.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $75.11 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $79.02. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the mid-4% area, with no approved live intraday level included.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,221 to $4,226 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,287 and then the $4,364 pivot area. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,160, with deeper downside targets at $4,073 and then $4,000. First resistance is seen at $4,221 and then at $4,287. First support is seen at $4,160 and then at $4,073.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $66.99 to $69.02 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $71.49 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.53, with deeper downside targets at $62.92 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $66.99 and then at $69.02. Next support is seen at $64.53 and then at $62.92.

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Gold and silver face medium-term pressure from hawkish Fed, Iran-U.S. deal​

(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices will likely be under pressure over the medium term as the conflict between the United States and Iran de-escalates while markets adjust to the Federal Reserve’s new hawkish tilt, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.In their latest update, the analysts noted that precious metal prices were shaken up after the Federal Reserve withdrew its easing bias.“Precious metal prices started the week strongly, but although the Fed decided to leave interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, the bias to easing was removed from the statement,” they wrote. “This is in line with Kevin Warsh’s ambition to make communication surrounding monetary policy more concise and comes as consumer prices are on the rise, with the US CPI reading 4.2% in May, more than double the Fed’s target of 2%.”“While this should have come as no surprise, there were two other changes from the FOMC meeting that influenced the market’s uncertain reaction,” the analysts said. “Firstly, the Summary of Economic Projections (SoEP) shows half of the FOMC participants believe that the most likely path for near-term interest rates is up, with nine of the 18 participants projecting higher interest rates by the end of 2026 and only one predicting them to be lower.”“Secondly, Kevin Warsh was very keen to stress the Fed remains committed to maintaining price stability,” they wrote. “This part of the dual mandate was spoken about at length, which plays into Warsh’s reputation as a monetary policy hawk. Whether this was just down to the current environment, with elevated energy prices and a change in communication style, or it is a sign of a more hawkish Fed generally is still up for debate.”The analysts also believe the US-Iran conflict is winding down following the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding last week.“The MoU was formally signed on 17 June and contains points surrounding: a complete cessation of all hostilities including in Lebanon, the US lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran allowing the Strait to open, the US unfreezing $28 billion in Iranian assets, a $300 billion fund to rebuild Iran after the conflict, Iran committing to never have a nuclear weapon, and a further 60-day window to negotiate a final settlement,” they said.But while the conflict may be over, Heraeus expects a full return to normal market functioning will take months.“Although oil through the Strait can theoretically enter the markets now, the practicalities surrounding reopening the Strait might prove significant,” they said. “The clearing of mines and insuring of tankers will take some time and prevent a glut of oil hitting the markets immediately. Then, there is the 4-6 weeks it takes for a tanker to transit through the strait laden with oil and deliver it to its destination. Both of these factors, along with the inevitable rebuilding of stockpiles of oil in the following months, will provide a bid on oil prices that have been heightened since the beginning of the conflict. This, in turn, could keep energy prices higher for longer and influence monetary policy across the globe, with the European and Japanese central banks already having hiked interest rates.”Spot gold has given back some of its earlier gains on Monday morning, last trading at $4,190.53 for a gain of 0.85% on the session.Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts said India’s silver imports have declined dramatically from 2025.“India imported 1.0 moz of silver in May, down from 17.2 moz the year before, making it the lowest of any month since the 0.6 moz imported in February 2023,” they noted. “While the 94% year-on-year drop seems extreme, it is because May 2025 was an outlier with strong investment and industrial demand along with the aftermath of an import duty cut in 2024. A better comparison would be with May 2024 when 2.7 moz of silver was imported. The 63% decrease in imports from May 2024 could be explained by a recent increase in import duty which came into effect on 13 May, raising duties from 6% to 15%. Along with this increase, silver was recategorised as a restricted item, further complicating the import process. India is a significant global silver importer, accounting for 18% of global silver demand which totalled 210 moz in 2025.”And silver prices followed gold lower after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting.“The recent rally in the silver price following the announcement of an agreement between the US and Iran appears to have been stopped in its tracks by a more hawkish Fed committing firmly to maintaining price stability,” the analysts said. “Silver prices rose above $71/oz prior to Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chairman, but they have since fallen as low as $63.3/oz. The Fed is likely to remain more hawkish until price indices show clear signs of reducing towards the Fed’s target of 2%. This could continue to subdue the silver price for some time, even as energy prices look set to come down over the coming months following the removal of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.”Silver prices are continuing to trade near the top of their daily range on Monday morning.Spot silver last traded at $66.494 per ounce for a gain of 2.49% on the daily chart.

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